Who will be the final Eastern playoff teams?

Roy Hibbert and the Pacers are, so far, on track to earn an East playoff spot. (Ron Hoskins/NBAE via Getty Images)

Before the season, most folks divided the the Eastern Conference into two broad tiers: six playoff locks (Miami, Boston, Orlando, Atlanta, Chicago and Milwaukee) and nine teams slap-fighting for the bottom two playoff spots. I was secretly hoping that one of those bottom nine teams would get off to a fast start and tweak this narrative a bit.

Nope.

Through Friday, none of the presumed bottom nine were over .500, and seven of the nine took up the last seven spots in the conference standings.

There is a school of thought that making the playoffs and losing in the first round is a good thing, that it gives young players valuable exposure to a more intense NBA atmosphere, and that it creates loyalty among fans. I’m not convinced on either of those counts, but let’s pretend for now that all of these teams (and their fans) really want to make the playoffs.

Are any of them ready to stand up and make the 1-8 and 2-7 series interesting for at least a quarter or two? Probably not. And though predicting teams’ postseason potential this early is a crapshoot, we’ve decided to give it a shot anyway. So, based on both numbers and all the game-watching that goes on at The Point Forward’s headquarters, here are the leading candidates for those last two playoffs spots in the East.

(All stats and records are through Nov. 19.)

1. Indiana Pacers (5-5)

If there’s a team among this group that is quietly interesting, this is the one. They’ve gone 5-5 against a pretty decent schedule, which is why various power rankings have the Pacers well above their fellow Eastern Conference also-rans. They’re the only team among this group that ranks in the top half of the league in both points scored and allowed per possession, they’re protecting the defensive glass and they’re running more conventional half-court plays (pick-and-rolls and post-ups) instead of sprinting down the floor like banshees. That’s good for center Roy Hibbert, which is probably good for Indy’s overall offensive health.

One potential landmine: The team’s decent offense is based entirely on good shooting, particularly its 39 percent mark from three-point range. Indiana ranks near the bottom in turnovers, offensive rebounding and free-throw attempts. If the shots start clanking, can the Pacers still score enough to win?

2. Charlotte Bobcats (4-8)

Your incumbent seventh seed, and still the only team here I’d put money on to make the playoffs. The Bobcats are just 4-8, but you know a hardscrabble Larry Brown team is going to finish better than it starts. The Bobcats are the same lousy offensive outfit they were last season, and that’s not likely to change. What is new, though, is Charlotte is middling on defense after leading the league last season in points allowed per possession. Like the Lakers, the Bobcats last season managed to both hold opponents to an extremely low three-point percentage and avoid fouling. They also forced turnovers more often than all but two teams.

Each of those trends has regressed to the mean this season, especially enemy long-range shooting. Opponents have hit 37 percent from deep. Expect that number to come down — and expect Charlotte’s defense to find its stinginess again.

3. New York Knicks (5-8)

Why are the Knicks No. 3? Because the math says they almost have to start shooting better from three-point range, where they have hit only 33 percent. They were bad from deep last year, too, but they weren’t this bad, and Danilo Gallinari especially is due to start shooting more like himself and less like Wilson Chandler.

They’ve also been unusually brick-tastic on long twos. The Knicks have made just 33.8 percent of their long two-point jumpers, the worst mark in the league. That should improve, and any nudge upward in long-range shooting will be more than enough to offset a coming cold streak on shots at the rim; the Knicks have hit 68 percent of those, and that won’t last.

The Knicks have the profile of an average team once you remove their early struggles from long range. They’re finishing well at the rim and drawing a lot more fouls than they did last season. Average would be plenty good enough to beat out most of this group.

4. New Jersey Nets (4-8)

I sort of like this team. I like that it’s been mildly competitive despite missing Troy Murphy and Terrence Williams for stretches, and despite Brook Lopez’s awful start. Lopez’s slow start is a big reason why the Nets are dead last in both shooting percentage on shots at the rim and made baskets per game on such shots. Both numbers will come up, and New Jersey’s offense, its weakest link, will improve when they do.

The Nets have improved on last year’s miserable three-point shooting, and that should hold up, even as Travis Outlaw’s three-point percentage gradually comes down from its current perch at 47 percent. Devin Harris is healthy and has rediscovered his shooting stroke, and this team is defending so much better. Don’t be totally shocked if the Nets snag a playoff spot.

5. Cleveland Cavaliers (5-6)

Apologies to Cleveland fans, since the Cavs have the second-best record among this group, but their schedule has just been too soft for me to read much into it. This team is fun to watch, and it isn’t doing anything particularly poorly — or particularly well — so far. There’s nothing here that appears unsustainable, in either direction.

And that’s the problem, because there’s no place I can point to and say, “The Cavs are due to get better at this!” as they get deeper into a much thornier section of their schedule (which started with Friday’s loss at New Orleans).

Understand: This team isn’t bad. Not nearly as bad as many expected it to be without LeBron James. Daniel Gibson has looked better at point guard than anticipated, J.J. Hickson is working hard and Anderson Varejao is never going to stop working hard. The Cavs have hung in despite the fact that their ostensible go-to guy (Mo Williams) has missed half their games.

But I just can’t see this team scoring enough to beat enough good teams.

6. Philadelphia 76ers (3-10)

Why is Philadelphia here? There’s really no good reason, other than the abject awfulness of the three teams below it. The Sixers are 3-10, they have no viable center, they can’t score and there’s at least a chance their best all-around player (Andre Iguodala) gets dealt by the February trade deadline.

But they’re the only team in this group other than the Pacers ranked above the league average in defensive efficiency, and that should count for something. They’re forcing misses, and they are cleaning up the defensive glass; only seven teams have grabbed a higher percentage of defensive rebounds. Those are fundamentally good things.

Elton Brand looks good (if not as good as he looked 10 days ago), Jrue Holiday is developing into a stud and my unreasonable affection for Thaddeus Young’s weird game continues to make me like the Sixers more than I probably should. Their defense and small lineups should be enough to win some games against teams that don’t feel like dealing with them in February.

On the other hand, opponents have hit just 29.9 percent of their threes, and when that number starts to come up, the 76ers could be in trouble.

7. Detroit Pistons (4-8)

A total mess for reasons everyone knows — the split among the older and younger guys, and weekly clashes between coach John Kuester and one of their key players. A lack of size prevents the Pistons from doing anything good in the paint, on either end of the court. Even their once-elite offensive rebounding has fallen below league average; Ben Wallace can’t crash the boards by himself, and Detroit feels the absence of Jonas Jerebko in this area.

The scary thing for the Pistons: They are winning the three-point battle by a huge margin, and that doesn’t figure to last. Only the Sixers and Jazz have held opponents to a lower shooting percentage from deep, and only three teams have outshot Detroit from long range. That differential won’t hold up. An optimist would say the same about Detroit’s bad rebounding and lack of interior scoring, but I don’t see the personnel on hand to flip those trends.

8. Toronto Raptors (4-9)

Maybe the weirdest team in the league so far, but not one I can see making a realistic run at the playoffs. The Raptors were a good three-point shooting team last year; now they’re ranked 28th, at 29.9 percent. They used to be careful with the ball; now they turn it over a lot. They ranked 24th in offensive rebounding last season; they’re in the top five this season behind Reggie Evans, perhaps the most bizarre player in the league. They lost Chris Bosh and they’re somehow getting to the foul line more often.

Good luck figuring out which of these extremes is for real and which will reverse itself as the season goes on. It might not even matter, to be honest.

The one trend that makes complete sense: Teams are shredding the Raptors inside, shooting a high percentage on shots within 10 feet and forcing Toronto to foul often. In possibly related news: Andrea Bargnani is the Raptors’ starting center.

9) Washington Wizards (4-7)

The optimist sees a team shooting at a league-average rate and wonders if the Wiz might be able to leap a bunch of these other teams if they can just figure out how to stop turning the ball over and get to the foul line once in a while. John Wall’s continued growth should help in both of those areas, right? And JaVale McGee will get better, and the team will figure out how to use Gilbert Arenas, and Yi Jianlian might finally pan out, and Andray Blatche is a beast in 30 games per season. And so on.

But you see this team do things on defense every night that would shame even last season’s Raptors. There is just too much chaos here, too much youth and too many guys who alternate too often between caring about the team and caring about themselves.

The Wizards might very well finish ahead of some teams on this list. They clearly have a brighter future than many of them. But no team would surprise me more by making the playoffs.

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