Too much of a good thing
Fifty wins just aren't what they used to be, are they? Eight teams in the Western Conference are on track to put 50 Ws in the bank. A ninth team, Denver, also isn't far off the pace to reach a mark that usually guarantees a playoff berth.
Overall, 10 teams (including fading Portland) are fighting for only eight postseason invitations. There's a good chance that at least one West team will become the best non-playoff club in league history, a distinction held by the 45-win Rockets of 2000-01.
With a little more than a quarter of the season left, let's handicap one of the NBA's best playoff races in recent memory (the difference between the conference leader and the No. 9 team was only 6½ games entering Wednesday's play). Below we assess each contender's chances of reaching the postseason, based on the games left as of Wednesday morning.
Los Angeles Lakers
Games remaining: 15 home, 10 away
Games vs. teams .500 or better: 14 (7 on road)
Games vs. East: 4
Key stretch: March 11-24 (Raptors, at Hornets, at Rockets, at Mavs, at Jazz, Sonics, Warriors, at Warriors)
The good news: Getting a one-time All-Star power forward in his prime for prospects, expiring contracts and draft picks was just the tonic for a team struggling with the absence of emerging center Andrew Bynum. Indeed, since Pau Gasol joined the lineup, the Lakers have gone 10-1. More impressive, all but two of the victories came on the road.
The bad news: Faults have been few of late, but for a team playing at one of the fastest paces in the league, Bynum's return from a knee injury (targeted for late March) will be crucial to its fortunes in the postseason, when the game tends to slow down. Gasol is a talented big man, but he isn't the type of low-post anchor a team can feed when the perimeter isn't so kind.
The prediction: When some observers crowned the Lakers the NBA title favorites after the Gasol heist, we dismissed the talk as the blather of a press corps desperate for Kobe's return to the game's biggest stage. But consider that the Lakers have taken the West lead without Bynum; their bench, led by point guard Jordan Farmar (21.7 points, 6.2 assists per 48 minutes), center Ronny Turiaf (9.8 rebounds, 3.4 blocks per 48) and forward Luke Walton (6.0 assists per 48) has been outstanding; their coach has nine championship rings; and Kobe may well be headed toward his first MVP award. Who, exactly, is going to beat them?
San Antonio Spurs
Games remaining: 13 home, 14 away
Games vs. teams .500 or better: 16 (9 on road)
Games vs. East: 9
Key stretch: March 7-17 (at Nuggets, at Suns, Nuggets, at Hornets, at Pistons, at 76ers, Celtics)
The good news: How about the experience of a team that hasn't missed the playoffs since 1997? Or the three championships in the last five years? Or the fact that the Spurs can roll the ball out to a two-time MVP (Tim Duncan), a Finals MVP (Tony Parker) and a current dark-horse MVP candidate (Manu Ginobili) all on the same floor?
The bad news: The Spurs have looked a step slow at times this year, disinterested at others. Duncan, Parker and Ginobili all have taken their licks, while Mr. Clutch, Robert Horry, simply looks finished. No matter how hard coach Gregg Popovich tries to limit the minutes his stars play, all of those extra games in the playoffs year after year take their toll.
The prediction: The Spurs may not be young -- in fact, they are the NBA's oldest team -- but that didn't stop an aging Bulls team from scratching their way to one more title in 1998, or the veteran-laden Lakers from winning the crown in 2002. Why should it stop this bunch? The Spurs know the season really starts in late April and pace themselves accordingly. And if you can hang as well on the road as San Antonio does, home-court advantage isn't nearly as important as good health.
Phoenix Suns
Games remaining: 12 home, 13 away
Games vs. teams .500 or better: 17 (9 on road)
Games vs. East: 5
Key stretch(es): March 22-April 1 (Rockets, at Pistons, at Celtics, at Nets, Nuggets, at Nuggets); April 9-16 (at Spurs, at Rockets, Warriors, Trail Blazers)
The good news: The Suns simply are one of the most talented and playoff-tested teams in the league; that should count for plenty when tensions rise during the stretch run. While Shaquille O'Neal's addition seems to have thrown the Suns' smooth-running attack off balance, it has proved a boon to Amaré Stoudemire, who has averaged 30.3 points with the Diesel in the lineup. And therein may be the key element of general manager Steve Kerr's deal for Shaq: Stoudemire was a tough cover when he was the Suns' primary low-post threat; now allowed to roam free, he appears unstoppable. That should be a pretty comforting complement to the perimeter play of Steve Nash, Grant Hill, Raja Bell and Leandro Barbosa.
The bad news: It was only a year ago coach Mike D'Antoni said that if his team didn't win the Finals, he would push to run even faster. That, of course, isn't Shaq's M.O. anymore. The resulting push and pull played out as the Suns lost two of their first three games with Shaq, including a 30-point drubbing to Detroit in Phoenix. While this team has the talent to eventually figure out a happy medium, the process is going to take its toll. And with such a thin margin separating the top seed from No. 8, the Suns could be spending a lot of time on the road this spring.
The prediction: As much as the Shaq deal altered the Suns' unique chemistry, their depth of talent will carry them into the postseason. But D'Antoni and Nash have to figure out how they are going to play. Trying to wait for the big fella now may help make him feel at home, but it negates what makes Phoenix such a tough foe, that relentless pressure it places on opposing defenders to make quick decisions. Come the postseason, we wouldn't be surprised to see Nash and Co. back to their breakneck ways with Shaq invited along as he sees fit.
Utah Jazz
Games remaining: 14 home, 11 away
Games vs. teams .500 or better: 14 (6 on road)
Games vs. East: 8
Key stretch: April 4-16 (Spurs, at Hornets, at Mavs, Nuggets, Rockets, at Spurs)
The good news: The Jazz will have a healthy dose of home cooking, where they are a league-best 24-3. Even better, a good portion of those games comes against some of the league's lightweights (SuperSonics, Bobcats and the Timberwolves twice).
The bad news: Carlos Boozer has seen his shooting accuracy drop every month this season, and his scoring has declined from almost 25 per game in November to 19-plus in February. That doesn't bode well for a rough two-week stretch to close the regular season.
The prediction: EnergySolutions Arena has never been friendly to visitors, and last year's run to the conference finals will have the Jazz primed for a return engagement.
New Orleans Hornets
Games remaining: 13 home, 14 away
Games vs. teams .500 or better: 16 (8 on road)
Games vs. East: 14
Key stretch: March 25-April 2 (at Pacers, at Cavs, at Celtics, at Raptors, at Magic, at Heat)
The good news: A robust 14 games against the East should benefit a team that has a bit of everything: an MVP-quality point guard (Chris Paul), a shot-blocking, rebounding presence at center (Tyson Chandler), a quietly effective scorer on the front line (David West) and a perimeter threat (Peja Stojakovic).
The bad news: They've come out of the All-Star break with three consecutive losses, including a home defeat to the undermanned Wizards. And we're stretching here, but a late-March road trip includes visits to a few of the elite teams that the East has to offer. That may make it a little tougher on a team with memories of narrowly missing out on a playoff spot last season.
The prediction: Question his X's and O's all you want, but as he proved in New Jersey, coach Byron Scott knows how to guide a team deep into the playoffs. A team whose ability to win in myriad ways will be an unwelcome playoff matchup.
Dallas Mavericks
Games remaining: 14 home, 11 away
Games vs. teams .500 or better: 15 (8 on road)
Games vs. East: 6
Key stretch(es): March 6-14 (Rockets, Nets, Knicks, Bobcats, Pacers); March 18-April 6 (Lakers, Celtics, Spurs, Clippers, at Nuggets, at Warriors, at Clippers, Warriors, at Lakers, at Suns)
The good news: A relative abundance of games at American Airlines Center should be a plus for a club with a 24-3 home record and 14-16 road mark. Although the Mavs have played under a cloud since their meltdown against the Warriors in last season's first round, imported leader Jason Kidd doesn't share in those memories, which can only help him prod Dallas to reclaim its swagger.
The bad news: Warriors ... come out to play. Don Nelson's aforementioned Dallas tormentors are on the schedule twice down the stretch, as are a host of playoff shoo-ins and hopefuls. And speaking of hope, that may be all Dallas' thin front line offers against the likes of Duncan, Gasol and O'Neal in the West.
The prediction: After mailing in his final games with the Nets this season, Kidd will exert an effort in ensuring his trade demand wasn't made in vain. With plenty of home dates remaining to set up a playoff berth, Dirk Nowitzki will get a chance prove last year's postseason was a fluke. It says here he won't accomplish the feat, but he'll at least get the opportunity.
Source:si.com
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